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图表3.4 英国历次T-4拍卖中各类型资源的容量折算系数

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所属报告：

落基山研究所（RMI）：2025容量机制演进下的新型储能发展策略：基于国内外实践的比较研究报告（56页）.pdf

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从历年分技术类型的T-4拍卖中的容量折算系数来看，火电和水电的折算系数保持在高位，均在0.85以上，其中燃油发电和开式循环燃气轮机的折算系数最高，在2024/25交付年度至2026/27交付年度超过了0.95。核电的折算系数呈下降趋势，这主要是由于英国在运核电多为20世纪70-80年代建设，运行时间已久，其核定容量支撑能力不断下降。需求响应单元的容量折算系数从2027/28交付年度开始止跌上升，这主要与英国的Non-BM Services）有关，并受到市场中平衡单元（BAU）日益多元化和分布式能源聚合商聚合效率（如Octopus Energy 的民商用智能响应平台）提升影响。考虑到新能源的间歇性，风电和光伏的容量折算系数相较于其他发电侧资源更低，但风电和光伏容量折算系数的变化趋势不同。风电容量折算系数呈现下降趋势，尤其是海上风电从2022/23交付年度的0.123下降到了2029/30交付年度的0.0781。英国推动风电尤其是海上风电的建设举措，使得电力系统中风电装机不断增加，风电单位容量的贡献因此降低。由于英国电力供应紧张常在冬季发生，英国冬季较短的日照时长缩短了光伏出力时段，因此光伏的容量折算系数较低。光伏的容量折算系数在 2024/25交付年度到2027/28交付年度间提升，缩小了光伏和陆上风电之间容量折算系数的差距。这主要是因为电力系统中短时储能的增加改变了系统容量支撑需求时段，即解决了原本晚高峰的短时尖峰支撑需求后，系统的压力时段向前延伸，纳入了包含光伏出力的时段45。这些容量系数变化是英国工党政府2024/25年更新的2030年清洁能源装机目标调整，尤其是光伏和陆上风电，装机目标调整的依据所在。在针对2020/21交付年度及之前的T-4拍卖中，储能的容量折算系数并未按连续放电时长进行区分，数值均在0.96 要也是针对抽水蓄能设定。英国从2017年开始区分不同连续放电时长的储能的容量支撑能力。从当年的容量市场拍卖（针对 2021/22交付年度的T-4 拍卖和针对 2018/19 交付年度的T-1 拍卖）开始，储能的容量折算系数按照不同连续放电时长（以0.5小时为间隔）进行了区分，连续放电时长越长的储能，容量折算系数越高，且基本呈线性增长。

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