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日本与嘉能可签订的动力煤年度合同价格涨幅达2.45倍（美元/吨）

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所属报告：

煤炭行业年度策略：煤炭开启价值重估之路-221211（45页）.pdf

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全球煤炭供需偏紧与贸易格局重塑背景下，伴随新一轮煤油气资源的补库需求，海外煤炭价格或将企稳回升并维持高位运行。2022 年前三季度，为确保国内能源安全，欧洲各国全力储备煤炭和天然气，海外煤价持续上涨，也助推库存水平升至历史高位，随后引起海外煤炭价格开始下跌。近期，随着欧洲各国气温下降，煤炭库存消耗加速，加之南非、澳洲、俄罗斯等国家因暴雨或劳资纠纷等原因煤炭供给收紧，进而煤炭供需偏紧下支撑海外煤价止跌回升。此外，国际贸易合约价格大幅提升，以日本年度动力煤采购合同为例，2022年 7月，日本新日铁住金株式会社（Nippon Steel）与全球矿商嘉能可集团（Glencore）达成春季动力煤年度采购合同，合同谈判价高达 375美元/吨，相较 2021年同期 109.07美元/吨上涨 2.45倍。同年 8月，日本电企东北电力公司（Tohoku Electric Power）与全球矿商嘉能可（Glencore）达成秋季动力煤年度采购合同，合同价为 395 美元/吨，较春季谈判价格再度上涨 20 美元/吨。结合前述分析，全球煤炭供需关系持续偏紧，随着今年冬季库存的去化和次年各国煤炭新一轮的补库需求，欧洲各国禁止进口俄罗斯煤炭外或将全年参与全球抢煤，我们预计海外煤炭价格有望企稳回升并保持高位运行。与此同时，我们认为，本轮海外煤价上涨的本质原因是供给产能周期导致的紧缺，短期内难以改善，即使是在俄罗斯没有断供欧洲煤油气能源的情况下，煤炭等能源价格也会在供需错配的矛盾下维持高位，并在中长期呈上行趋势，其持续性和强度或将远超预期。

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