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伯明翰运河股息率远超同期国债收益率
伯明翰运河股息率远超同期国债收益率
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专题报告：历史上四轮科技股泡沫回顾与启示-260223（73页）.pdf
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图6、全国462家矿山样本开工率（%）
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2026-07-21
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图6：丨按国家划分的使用各AI工具的受访者比例(渗透率，%)
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2026-07-21
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图4：.全要素生产率、人均资本和人均GDP指数（2001年=100），肯尼
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2026-07-21
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图16：.储备与进口覆盖率，2022年1月至2026年6月（月末数据
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2026-07-21
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图17：.肯尼亚国债收益率曲线 （百分比）
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2026-07-21
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图4.1：.过去十年英国生产率增长疲弱
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2026-07-21
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图4.3：英国各地区劳动生产率差异显著
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2026-07-21
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图4.8：.英国各地区技能短缺和职位空缺率存在显著差异
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2026-07-21
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图4.4：.英国大部分生产率差异源于地区内部差异，而非地区间差异
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2026-07-21
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运河建设初期，运河股凭借其高分红的准公共资产属性吸引投资者关注：（1）运河建设具有一定壁垒，即“准垄断”地位：从制度上，1720年的“南海泡沫”导致英国议会通过“泡沫法案”，也即成立股份公司需要议会批准，公开募集股份的运河公司同样受议会监管。从资金层面，修建运河前期投入资金巨大，最早修建的布里奇沃特运河前后共投入 30万英镑，1770-1816年的利兹和利物浦运河共耗费 120 万英镑。资金体量较大，一方面天然存在“IPO”需求，需要公开发行股份以募资，另一方面也意味着较强的准入壁垒；（2）运河公司的高分红属性突出：1790年前建设的运河，项目质量较高，投入使用后大多数取得良好效益，并为股东提供可观的分红收益。以伯明翰运河公司为例，自1769年投入使用后，在 1770-1775年的股息率仅为 3.9%，但到 1776-1780 年提升至 10.6%，到 1841-1845年甚至突破 100%，远高于同期英国国债收益率；（3）投资者地区性特征明显，且主要目的是为获取分红而非资本利得，投机性相对较小，股票流动性偏低：在运河热初期，运河公司主要分布在英国中部地区，以开放认购簿形式募资，投资者主要以运河附近的商人、地主和富裕居民为主，其投资目的是为获取运河建成后的股息分红。体现在换手率上，1770-1789年，除运河公司建设初期因为溢价发行导致换手率高外，在大部分时间换手率处于低位。
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专题报告：历史上四轮科技股泡沫回顾与启示-260223（73页）.pdf
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