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图4中国市场移动网络流量增长预测

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所属报告：

上海贝尔：2025异构计算重塑无线网络白皮书（38页）.pdf

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依据工信部的统计数据，中国市场移动流量增长日趋乏力。以中国移动为例，中国移动移动客户已超10 亿，再加上电信、联通的竞争分流，用户数量增长空间受限，过去四年用户DOU和ARPU值增长有限，2024 年个人市场收入出现近五年来首次下滑。另外一个角度看，网络变现的现实状况与网络设计目标存在比较大的差距，所设想的一些5G应用如AR/VR，远程医疗，车联网等目前并未广泛应用，流量增长也因缺少爆款 5G应用及WiFi的广泛覆盖而变得艰难。因此，可以认为面向个人用户的网络连接价值在目前的应用体系下接近饱和。 ARPU值的提升。当前，在AI与智算硬件的催化下，生成式人工智能技术与应用得到广泛普及。依据OMDIA 关于AI流量预测的咨询报告，未来应用将主要分为三大类，一类是传统应用，二是AI增强应用，三是全新的 AI应用。2025年到2033年，总流量将有6倍多的增长，流量构成将会发生重大变化，其中，传统流量占比将从56%降到34%，CAGR18%，AI增强应用占比从43%增长到47%，CAGR31%，全新AI应用的流量占比从 1%迅猛增长到27%，CAGR100%。可以预见的是AI将在未来很长的时间内持续重塑应用体系，转变运营商流量增长的困局。与应用体系的渐进式重塑相匹配的是运营商网络能力适配。ITU-R与3GPP描绘了一个多用途6G移动网络，如最基本的连接，A服务，以及通感服务等等。基于这样一个多用途网络底座，运营商将为更为广泛的的核心路径。传统通信网络专注于数据传输，而万物智联时代要求网络兼具数据传输与计算处理能力，将算

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