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图6.加速ETS情景下的平均碳成本，2021-30年

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所属报告：

气候转型亚洲（Transition Asia）：2025中国碳排放交易体系对铝行业的影响-聚焦中国前三大铝生产省份内蒙古（9页）.pdf

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12.6兆瓦时/吨铝为了评估在内蒙古地区使用BAT能减少多少成本，我们模拟了这样一个情景：将2021年基准年的所有 12个冶炼厂的能耗强度统一设定为12.6兆瓦时/吨铝，然后将结果中的碳成本与实际能耗强度水平下的碳成本进行比较。分析结果发现，在内蒙古，技术改进可以将碳成本减少最多10元/吨铝，从全省角度看，平均每吨铝节约6元。鉴于当前各厂的能耗强度范围为12.7-13.6兆瓦时/吨铝，如果只通过效率提升，减碳的空间会非常有限。不过内蒙古没有出现任何冶炼厂重建的公告，所以该地区不太可能在2030年前通过新技术实现显著无论在当前政策情景下，还是加速ETS情景下，冶炼厂的碳成本在2030年前预计都将逐年增加。冶炼厂的的减排。其他减排技术比如通过电解槽热平衡或电极改造等改造冶炼厂也可以减少排放，但潜力很碳成本对ETS价格非常敏感，当碳价上升到242元/吨二氧化碳时，铝冶炼厂的碳成本到2030年可能超过600 小。到2030年中国可实现商业化的改进技术只能带来不到1千瓦时/千克铝能耗节约。因此，这些并元/吨铝，几乎是当前铝锭价格的3%。与当前政策情景的结果相比，这意味着到2030年每吨铝的碳成本会增未被纳入本文分析。由于惰性阳极预计在2030年前不会实现商业化应用，因此也被排除在我们的分析加超过200元－达到当前水平的三倍。此外，我们还进行了额外分析以了解在更高碳价情景和当前可再生能源部署下碳成本的变化。随着时间的推移，内蒙古铝冶炼厂当前的可再生能源建设速度会降低碳成本，但影响有限。到2030年，计划中的可再生能源项目在更高ETS价格情景下可实现的碳成本节约为50元/吨铝左右。增强ETS影响情景探讨了在更严格和更具雄心的排放权交易框架下，铝冶炼厂的碳成本会如何演中国ETS对常规燃煤发电机组设定的基准碳强度已从2019年的平均0.93吨二氧化碳/兆瓦时逐年下降到2024 变。在基准情景基础上，该情景引入了两项关键压力测试：1.加速ETS情景模拟了显著更高ETS价格年的平均0.8吨二氧化碳/兆瓦时。根据这一历史下降趋势，我们在当前政策轨迹情景中假设ETS基准碳强轨迹的影响，参考了欧盟ETS第3阶段免费配额数量急剧下降的历史趋势；2.零基准情景模拟了积极度的未来下降速度与历史保持一致。而在零基准情景中，基准碳强度被降至零，这样我们就可以更清楚地收紧基准排放强度的效果，设置免费配额的分配基准从2026年起就降至零。这些子情景共同测试了了解铝冶炼企业在所有碳排放都被覆盖情况下的碳成本。简单地说，在此情景下，参与ETS市场的企业从冶炼厂在更严格气候政策下的财务风险，突显了冶炼厂依赖煤电运营的风险，以及尽早采纳可再生 2026年开始需要为所有二氧化碳排放支付费用，而不是仅为排放强度基准以上的部分付费。能源可实现的潜在成本节约。

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