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Utility-scale installations and base case forecast, 2020-2036

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所属报告：

美国太阳能产业协会（SEIA）：2025年美国太阳能市场洞察报告（摘要版）（英文版）（20页）.pdf

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34.7 GWac installed in 2025, 9.9 GWac installed in Q4 2025 The utility-scale solar market installed 34.7 GWac in Q4 2025, a 16% year-over-year decline, despite steady momentum earlier in the year. Installations through the first three quarters tracked 2024 levels at roughly 25 GWdc. The slowdown was concentrated entirely in Q4, which fell 40% year-over-year. This late-year decline likely reflects timing and execution dynamics, not a deterioration in demand. Policy uncertainty following the passage of OBBBA, combined with renewed tariff concerns, contributed to delayed construction decisions rather than project cancellations. Strong post-lRA installation activity in 2023 and 2024, followed by the passage of OBBBA, led to a natural slowdown in 2025 as developers reevaluated their pipeline and many pushed online dates into the 2026-2028 window. Installation volume declines were concentrated in large markets such as Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, and Ohio, further amplifying the national slowdown. However, forward-looking indicators point to an underlying resilience. Although Q4 contracted volumes declined 11% year- for projects reaching financial closing increased 26% year-over-year, and solar projects securing signed interconnection agreements also rose by 16% relative to 2024, demonstrating continued pipeline maturation and improved grid progress. their growth positions the market for stronger delivery in 2026 and beyond. 2026-2029 window. The updated outlook has an average annual build of around 35 GWdc through 2030. We also increased our post-2030 forecast by 5% to account for additional data center demand-driven growth. Over the full 10-year outlook, we expect the utility-scale solar segment to install 381 GWdc of new capacity.

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