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通达系利润增速分化：中通5%+领跑，申通触底改善

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所属报告：

电商快递行业2026年中期投资策略：内修盈利外拓增量-260715（28页）.pdf

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2025年第一季度至2026年第一季度，通达系快递公司归母净利润同比增速呈现显著分化。中通快递各季度增速保持在5.0%-6.0%，表现最为稳健；申通快递从2025Q1的-1.0%逐季改善至2025Q4的3.0%，2026Q1回落至1.0%；圆通速递与韵达股份各季度均维持在-1.0%，增速承压。数据来源：中泰证券研究所

通达系快递季度归母净利润同比增速（%）
季度	中通快递	圆通速递	韵达股份	申通快递
2025Q1	5.8	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0
2025Q2	5.8	-1.0	-1.0	1.5
2025Q3	6.0	-1.0	-1.0	2.5
2025Q4	6.0	-1.0	-1.0	3.0
2026Q1	5.0	-1.0	-1.0	1.0

数据来源：中泰证券研究所

从通达系快递公司季度归母净利润同比增速的变化来看，可以提炼出三个关键判断：
中通快递增速最为稳健。中通2025年四个季度净利润增速保持在5.8%-6.0%，2026Q1小幅回落至5.0%，在通达系中增速最高且稳定性最强，反映其成本优势与规模效应持续兑现。
申通快递实现逐季改善后回落。申通从2025Q1的-1.0%持续改善至2025Q4的3.0%，逐季提升4个百分点，反映公司补能提效和双网协同战略逐步见效。2026Q1回落至1.0%，仍需关注盈利修复的持续性。
圆通与韵达增速表现承压。圆通速递和韵达股份各季度增速均维持在-1.0%，持续负增长但未进一步恶化，底部特征明显。结合圆通2026H1归母净利润预增69%-86%的公告，下半年盈利有望迎来显著改善。