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图3运输服务贸易总额与船舶运力规模的相关性

市场规模

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所属报告：

上海交通大学：全球航运景气指数2025年度报告（39页）.pdf

打包全文图表

两国运输服务贸易总额与船舶运力规模相关性的差距较大。其原因在于，美国自身的船队规模现在已经很难满足美国运输服务贸易市场的需要，更不可能为其国际货物贸易市场提供充分的运输服不仅想要制造业回归，很可能也想要航运业回归。美国贸易办公室的《行动与拟议行动公告》中已经提到了“美国货美国船运”的想法，但是限于美国船队目前的能力，只能采用制造业优先的做法。中国改革开放以来，特别是加入WTO以来，顺应中国制造业发展的需要，中远海运集团、招商局集团等央国企带头，地方航运和港口企业跟上，克服重重困难，广开财路，联合中银、工银等金融机构建立船舶基金，积极融措资金，不断完善船队结构、扩大船队规模，在满足我国制造业发展需要的同时，降低了制造业的物流成本，提高了供应链的韧性，为中国产品走向全球做出了基础性贡献。贸易竞争力均处于弱势。不同之处在于，美国总体上竞争力下滑；中国则是先抑后扬。在2018年之后的3年，中国运输服务贸易竞争指数呈现快速上扬的态势，但是之后又连续2年回落，2024年又出现反弹，呈现大幅跳跃的局面，显示出中国运输服务贸易正处于重要的历史转变期。口的变化影响甚微（美国），甚至可能没有影响（中国）。造成这一现象的原因在于运输服务贸易依赖的是国际航行船舶的运输能力（简称运力），而这个运力是全球化的，并不受地域限制。一国贸易商的采购量和该国承运商的运力销售量之间并没有必然的联系。更重要的，一国承运商销售的运力是可以在国际市场上自由组织的，并不受船舶所挂国旗的限制。也正是因为这个原因，中国和和美国这两个全球最大的贸易国，尽管拥有的船队规模存在较大差异，但其运输服务贸易均呈现巨额逆差。

市场规模原图定位