Exhibit 23: Global Al semi market mix, by application Source: Company data, Gartner, Morgan Stanley Research. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates Cloud semi mix: General Al vs. Custom Al General-purpose AI (GPU, FPGA, merchant Al) During TSMC's 4Q25 earnings call, the company guided full-year 2026 capex at US$52- 56bn, above our prior estimate of US$49bn. Management also indicated that capex is noted that tool costs continue to rise at leading-edge nodes. Additionally, based on our recent conversations with TSMC's equipment and chemical suppliers, we observe that its infrastructure build-out - particularly cleanroom additions - is proceeding more aggressively than we previously estimated. Between now and end- 2027, TSMC plans to construct 12 front-end fabs, including advanced 3nm fabs in Arizona and Kumamoto, as well as four advanced packaging fabs. In light of these developments, we now forecast TSMC's capex for 2027 to reach US$65bn and 2028 capex at US$70bn. We also see a clear upward trend in OSATs capex. Total OSAT spend has increased from US$4.7bn in 2023 following the post-Covid-19 correction, to US$15bn in 2026e. This increase is driven primarily by Al-related demand. Companies such as ASE are receiving increased outsourcing from TSMC, while testing houses such as KYEC are benefitting from longer test times for Al-related chips (e.g., GPUs). Other OSATs, including Amkor, JCET, and Powertech, are also developing more advanced packaging solutions.
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2026-07-28
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