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交易员与点阵图对未来美联储政策预期
交易员与点阵图对未来美联储政策预期
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所属报告：
宏观深度报告：2025年十大“不一致”预期-250102（24页）.pdf
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2025年12月美联储议息会议点阵图和主要经济数据预测（红色表示上修，绿色表示下修）
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2025-12-15
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图44FOMC中点阵图预测较为鹰派，对2026年降息分歧较为严重
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行业数据
2025-12-15
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12月点阵图显示2026-2027年累计降息维持2次00000000
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行业数据
2025-12-15
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图表612月美联储议息会议点阵图显示2026年、2027年分别降息1次
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行业数据
2025-12-15
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2025年12月（左）和2025年9月（右）FOMC点阵图对比
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2025-12-12
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当前预期：美联储在 6、12 月分别降息 25bps。2024 年 12 月 FOMC 会议上美联储如期降息 25bps 至[4.25, 4.5]%，最新点阵图显示 2025 年将有 2 次降息。但联邦基金期货最新数据显示，市场预期这 2 次降息将在 25H2 落地。从第二部分中不难看出，市场预期 2025 年降息更可能在下半年发生的原因在于，特朗普新政料给美国通胀带来更大的上行风险，使得美联储不得不在降息节奏上采取更为谨慎的策略。
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宏观深度报告：2025年十大“不一致”预期-250102（24页）.pdf
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