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中国民航需求预测
中国民航需求预测
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所属报告：
航空行业2026年投资策略：重新探索航空业供需与票价-260127（44页）.pdf
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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中国民航航班正常率2009-2015年大幅下降，背后是空域时刻瓶颈
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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中国民航机队规划增速与客流规划增速较为接近
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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中国民航空域繁忙度2012年已显著高于欧美
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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“十四五”中国民航客机宽体机占比下降
fCDlubTku70gfCDkuK3lm73msJHoiKrlrqLmnLrlrr3kvZPmnLrljaDmr5QgfAp8LS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18CnwgMjAxOCB8IDExLjglICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDE5IHwgMTIuNSUgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjAgfCAxMi4zJSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8CnwgMjAyMSB8IDEyLjElICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDIyIHwgMTIuMCUgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjMgfCAxMS44JSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNCB8IDExLjIlICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1IHwgMTAuOSUgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfAoK6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77ya5Lit5Zu95rCR6Iiq5bGA77yM6aOe5bi45YeG77yMQ0FEQVPvvIzlm73ms7DmtbfpgJror4HliLjnoJTnqbY=
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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2019年底，中国民航业“十四五”机队规划增速显著放缓
fCDop4TliJLmnJ8gICB8IOS6lOW5tOWkjeWQiOWinumAnyB8CnwtLS0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfAp8IOWNgeS6lCAgICAgfCAxMC40JSAgICAgICAgfAp8IOWNgeS4gOS6lCAgIHwgMTMuMSUgICAgICAgIHwKfCDljYHkuozkupQgICB8IDEwLjclICAgICAgICB8Cnwg5Y2B5LiJ5LqUICAgfCA4LjElICAgICAgICAgfAp8IOWNgeWbm+S6lCAgIHwgMy4yJSAgICAgICAgIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mldpbmTvvIzkuK3lm73msJHoiKrlsYDvvIzlm73ms7DmtbfpgJror4HliLjnoJTnqbY=
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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中国民航2024-2026年连续五个航季航班计划总量未有增长
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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2002年中国民航业重组，奠定三大航航网品质
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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中国民航装配普惠PW1100飞机共237架
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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2019年之前，中国民航业机队增速长期保持10%以上
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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中国民航空域资源稀缺——空域仅20%用于民航
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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2025年中国民航飞机停飞规模进一步增长
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市场规模
2026-07-06
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需求景气同比对出行链个股的RankIC（节假日对齐修正后，2023年以来，按预测期k）
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行业数据
2026-06-24
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全球石油需求预测：单位：百万桶/天
fCDpooTmtYvmnLrmnoQgfCAyMDI1IHwgMjAyNkUgfCAyMDI3RSB8IDI2WU9ZIHwgMjdZT1kgfAp8IC0tLSB8IC0tLSB8IC0tLSB8IC0tLSB8IC0tLSB8IC0tLSB8CnwgT1BFQysgfCAxMDUuMiB8IDEwNi4xIHwgMTA3LjkgfCAwLjk3IHwgMS43MyB8CnwgRUlBIHwgMTA0LjAgfCAxMDIuOSB8IDEwNS4zIHwgLTEuMDkgfCAyLjQ2IHwKfCBJRUEgfCAgfCAgfCAgfCAtMS4xMCB8IDIuMDAgfAp8IOWdh+WAvCB8ICB8ICB8ICB8IC0wLjQxIHwgMi4wNiB8CgrotYTmlpnmnaXmupDvvJpPUEVDK+OAgUVJQeOAgUlFQeOAgeaLm+WVhuivgeWIuA==
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行业数据
2026-06-24
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全球油品海运需求预测
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