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国际清算银行金融条件指数分项走势

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所属报告：

宏观专题报告：中国10年国债收益率走势研判-251206（37页）.pdf

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第二，海外利率、政策和风险因素通过金融条件对我国产生跨境传导。2014 年以来，国际金融条件宽松程度开始有所收敛，2021 年以来，金融条件随发达国家通胀飙升和美联储货币政策转向而迅速收紧，对我国经济和价格产生收缩效应。根据国际清算银行（2025）的研究，金融条件影响实体经济活动的融资可得性和成本，进而影响企业和家庭的决策，最终对经济、价格产生引导作用。2008 年全球金融危机以来，国际金融体系的重大变化之一是对政府的债权取代了对私营部门信贷成为主要信用扩张的方式，国际证券组合投资者在全球债券市场中的活动成为跨境资本流动的中心，从而导致了金融条件更强的跨国传导。国际清算银行开发的金融条件指数 FCI 因子模型主要提炼出两个反映全球金融条件的因子：一是捕捉利率和安全收益率水平的动态“水平因子”，二是捕捉风险较高的市场领域的“风险因子”，后者与风险感知和风险偏好相关，大体上取决于风险收益率和利差以及股票回报。从下图可见，2014 年以来，水平因子指向的金融条件宽松程度开始有所收敛，2021 年以来，水平因子随着通胀飙升和美联储货币政策收紧而迅速上升，反映金融条件大幅收紧。风险因子则出现了一些结构性的变化，风险溢价和安全利率趋向于紧缩、短期融资利率则转向宽松，加总后总体变化不大。2024 年上半年，短期和长期政府债券收益率上升，收紧了整体金融条件。2024 年四季度，随着美欧央行开始降低政策利率，金融条件的短期利率部分有所宽松，但长期利率则因期限溢价上升而增加。综上，2021 年以来，来自海外利率水平和风险情绪的恶化共同导致海外金融条件大幅收紧，并对我国溢出收缩效应。

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