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图表4近期政策救助万科预期引发万科债券价格波动

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所属报告：

【策略周报】策略周聚焦：储备躁动品种-251221（19页）.pdf

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2、地产政策推进：关注房贷贴息、房贷利率调降、房地产收储等政策进展。中央经济工作会议强调“着力稳定房地产市场”，从政策抓手来看，我们认为三个方向值得关注：①房贷贴息：地方已有试点，全国层面仍待观测，明年 3 月两会重要观测窗口。自 2023年以来，包括南京、长春、运城、武汉等在内的城市已试点“购房贴息”政策，通过阶梯式补贴或按贷款比例贴息降低购房成本，今年 12 月广州部分楼盘推出“买房贷款补贴”活动。具体是否会全国推广关注明年 3 月两会部署。②房贷利率调降：2026/1/1 起存量公积金贷款执行下调后利率，关注明年是否再度调降。2024 年以来央行已两次下调个人住房公积金贷款利率，累计降幅 50BP，此前已发放的存量个人住房公积金贷款将从 2026年 1 月 1 日起执行新利率。中央经济工作会议要求“深化住房公积金制度改革”，2026 年有望再次下调个人住房公积金贷款利率。③房地产收储：租售比历史高点，明年收储有望加速推进。根据中指研究院不完全统计，截至 9 月末，全国各地拟使用专项债收回收购闲置土地的数量超过 4600 宗，总用地面积超 2.4 亿平米，总金额超 6200 亿元。政策痛点在于价格评估机制难统一，且市场化机构参与度较低。当前全国百城租售比已升至高点，今年以来百城二手住宅租售比从 0.188%升至 0.198%，租金收益率从 2.26%升至 2.38%，均创下 2018 年以来新高。中央经济工作会议强调“鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房”，2026 年各地房地产收储或加速推进。

政策法规原图定位