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CME联邦利率观察（截至3月3日）
CME联邦利率观察（截至3月3日）
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所属报告：
政策与大类资产配置月观察：静待全国两会指引-250304（22页）.pdf
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相关数据
图表2CME显示市场预期2026年美联储降息2次
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行业数据
2025-12-26
原图定位
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CME日元兑美元非商业净空头持仓（千张）
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行业数据
2025-12-22
原图定位
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图2CME显示12月降息概率略微升高，截至2025年11月21日
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行业数据
2025-11-24
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CME模型显示12月再降息25bp的概率为63%
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行业数据
2025-11-06
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CME美联储降息预期（9月29日）
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行业数据
2025-10-10
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CME美联储降息预期（10月7日）
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行业数据
2025-10-10
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CME预计今年降息2次（截止2025/8/17）
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行业数据
2025-08-25
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CME活牛期货结算价（连续）对照图，美分/磅
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行业数据
2025-08-15
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2024年以来挖机内销数据及当月CME预计数据
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行业数据
2025-05-12
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CME利率预测（3月17日）
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行业数据
2025-03-19
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最新CME降息预测（12月18日更新）
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行业数据
2024-12-23
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CME市场预期2025年将降息75bp
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行业数据
2024-12-06
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图表20CME降息预期
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行业数据
2024-08-21
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CME利率期货隐含降息概率（截止5月16日）
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