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房地产历轮基本面、政策面情况
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所属报告：
房地产行业2022年中期策略及周期复盘：黎明破晓鲲鹏击浪-220629（76页）.pdf
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产业链
2026-06-26
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日本房地产企业和产业链企业相对日经225超额收益
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产业链
2026-06-26
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2010年以来房地产产业链PB(LF)估值水平（倍）
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产业链
2026-06-26
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图24、房地产规模占比提升2.82pct至32.4%
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市场规模
2026-06-25
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出行链驱动量对酒店基本面的相关系数（每格为“趋势口径/平稳口径”，2023年以来周频、剔极端段）
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行业数据
2026-06-24
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股票在美国居民资产中占比与房地产接近
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行业数据
2026-06-23
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韩国奢侈品消费规模和房地产、股市资产价格上涨呈正相关
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市场规模
2026-06-18
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近几年我国房地产销售额及占GDP比重
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行业数据
2026-06-12
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图表72017年后房地产行业资产负债率与行业估值
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行业数据
2026-06-09
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我们认为，复盘对本轮周期底部政策的借鉴意义在于，行业政策友好期长于以往。2022年 5 月房价环比-0.2%，离政策收紧触发线+0.9%还有很大的空间，目前仍处于政策放松中前期，并自 2021 年 12 月政策底以来仅 7 个月，即使仅参考以往放松周期均值 14 个月仍有较长的政策友好期。此外，考虑到本轮周期底部中宏观经济下行压力媲美 2008 年和2014 年，而多限制政策下行业下行压力已超过 2008 年和 2014 年，同时房企出险数量创历史新高，因而预测本轮周期后续基本面修复也将呈现出曲折型修复，预计后续政策友好期持平或超 2014 年的 19 个月。
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房地产行业2022年中期策略及周期复盘：黎明破晓鲲鹏击浪-220629（76页）.pdf
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