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金龙鱼盈利拆分及预测
金龙鱼盈利拆分及预测
行业数据
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所属报告：
金龙鱼-公司研究报告-粮油版图扩张盈利有望修复-241231（41页）.pdf
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相关数据
金龙鱼分业务的营收增速情况（单位：%）
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行业数据
2025-11-10
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金龙鱼归母净利润及增速（单位：亿元、%）
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行业数据
2025-11-10
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金龙鱼单季营业收入及增速（单位：亿元、%）
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行业数据
2025-11-10
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金龙鱼营业收入及增速（单位：亿元、%）
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行业数据
2025-11-10
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金龙鱼单季归母净利润及增速（单位：亿元、%）
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行业数据
2025-11-10
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金龙鱼分业务营收占比情况（单位：%）
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行业数据
2025-11-10
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金龙鱼全国化布局
PHxiZWdpbl9vZl9ib3h8Pnwg5Z+O5biCICAgICB8CnwtLS0tLS0tLS0tfAp8IOaYjOWQiSAgICAgfAp8IOm9kOm9kOWTiOWwlCB8Cnwg5a+M6ZSmICAgICB8Cnwg5L2z5pyo5pavICAgfAp8IOWvhuWxsSAgICAgfAp8IOWQieaelyAgICAgfAp8IOW8gOWOnyAgICAgfAp8IOayiOmYsyAgICAgfAp8IOiQpeWPoyAgICAgfAp8IOebmOmUpiAgICAgfAp8IOWTiOWwlOa7qCAgIHwKfCDmlrnmraMgICAgIHwKfCDnmb3ln44gICAgIHwKfCDlhbTlronnm58gICB8Cnwg5YyX5LqsICAgICB8Cnwg6Zy45beeICAgICB8Cnwg5aSp5rSlICAgICB8Cnwg55+z5a625bqEICAgfAp8IOWkquWOnyAgICAgfAp8IOaZi+S4rSAgICAgfAp8IOW+t+W3niAgICAgfAp8IOeDn+WPsCAgICAgfAp8IOmdkuWymyAgICAgfAp8IOazsOWuiSAgICAgfAp8IOWFluW3niAgICAgfAp8IOi/nuS6kea4ryAgIHwKfCDnm5Dln44gICAgIHwKfCDpg5Hlt54gICAgIHwKfCDlvIDlsIEgICAgIHwKfCDlkajlj6MgICAgIHwKfCDlkIjogqUgICAgIHwKfCDoipzmuZYgICAgIHwKfCDpqazpno3lsbEgICB8Cnwg5byg5a625rivICAgfAp8IOazsOW3niAgICAgfAp8IOatpuaxiSAgICAgfAp8IOS5kOW5syAgICAgfAp8IOS4iua1tyAgICAgfAp8IOadreW3niAgICAgfAp8IOa4qeW3niAgICAgfAp8IOazieW3niAgICAgfAp8IOWOpumXqCAgICAgfAp8IOa9ruW3niAgICAgfAp8IOaDoOW3niAgICAgfAp8IOa3seWcsyAgICAgfAp8IOW5v+W3niAgICAgfAp8IOS4nOiOniAgICAgfAp8IOiMguWQjSAgICAgfAp8IOmYsuWfjua4ryAgIHwKfCDotLXmuK8gICAgIHwKfCDmmIbmmI4gICAgIHwKfCDph43luoYgICAgIHwKfCDmiJDpg70gICAgIHwKfCDlub/msYkgICAgIHwKfCDlhbTlubMgICAgIHwKfCDlhbDlt54gICAgIHwKfCDlronpmLMgICAgIHwKfCDlsrPpmLMgICAgIHwKfCDljZfmmIwgICAgIHwKfCDlrpzmmKUgICAgIHwKfCDlkInlrokgICAgIHwKCuaVsOaNruadpea6kO+8mldpbmTvvIzkuJzljJfor4HliLg8fGVuZF9vZl9ib3h8Pg==
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行业数据
2025-08-27
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2020-2025Q1金龙鱼毛利率和归母净利率
fCDml7bpl7QgICAgICAgfCDmr5vliKnnjocgfCDlh4DliKnnjocgfAp8LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tfAp8IDIwMjAgICAgICAgfCAxMi40JSAgfCAzLjIlICAgfAp8IDIwMjEgICAgICAgfCA4LjIlICAgfCAxLjklICAgfAp8IDIwMjIgICAgICAgfCA1LjclICAgfCAxLjMlICAgfAp8IDIwMjMgICAgICAgfCA0LjklICAgfCAxLjIlICAgfAp8IDIwMjQgICAgICAgfCA1LjUlICAgfCAxLjElICAgfAp8IDIwMjVRMSAgICAgfCA2LjklICAgfCAxLjglICAgfAoK6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaV2luZO+8jOS4nOWMl+ivgeWIuA==
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行业数据
2025-08-27
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2020-2025Q1金龙鱼归母净利润
PHxiZWdpbl9vZl9ib3h8Pnwg5bm05Lu9ICAgICAgIHwg5b2S5q+N5YeA5Yip5ram77yI5Lq/5YWD77yJIHwgWW9Z77yIJe+8iSB8CnwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS0tLXwKfCAyMDIwICAgICAgIHwgNjAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwg4oCUICAgICAgICB8CnwgMjAyMSAgICAgICB8IDQxICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IC0xNSAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDIyICAgICAgIHwgMzAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgLTE1ICAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjMgICAgICAgfCAyOSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfCArNSAgICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNCAgICAgICB8IDI1ICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IC0xMCAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1UTEgICAgIHwgMTAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgKzE1ICAgICAgfAoK5pWw5o2u5p2l5rqQ77yaV2luZO+8jOS4nOWMl+ivgeWIuDx8ZW5kX29mX2JveHw+
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行业数据
2025-08-27
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2020-2025Q1金龙鱼四费率
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行业数据
2025-08-27
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2020-2025Q1金龙鱼营业收入
PHxiZWdpbl9vZl9ib3h8Pnwg5bm05Lu9L+Wto+W6piB8IOiQpeS4muaUtuWFpe+8iOS6v+WFg++8iSB8IFlvWe+8iCXvvIkgfAp8IC0tLSB8IC0tLSB8IC0tLSB8CnwgMjAyMCB8IDE5NjguOTAgfCAtIHwKfCAyMDIxIHwgMjI2Ni40MCB8IDE1LjE0IHwKfCAyMDIyIHwgMjU3NC44MCB8IDEzLjYyIHwKfCAyMDIzIHwgMjUyMS41MCB8IC0yLjA3IHwKfCAyMDI0IHwgMjQxMi4zMCB8IC00LjMzIHwKfCAyMDI1UTEgfCA2MDIuODAgfCAzLjUyIHwKCuaVsOaNruadpea6kO+8mldpbmTvvIzkuJzljJfor4HliLg8fGVuZF9vZl9ib3h8Pg==
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行业数据
2025-08-27
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金龙鱼各类厨房食品之间实行品牌共享
PHxvYnNlcnZhdGlvbnw+
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行业数据
2025-01-02
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金龙鱼包装米及调味品等业务未来发展空间预测
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行业数据
2025-01-02
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电商平台金龙鱼、鲁花、中粮食用油产品矩阵及价格对比
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2025-01-02
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我们采用可比估值法对金龙鱼进行估值，参考依据包括：1）公司上市以来 PE-ttm 中位数为 68.59 倍，2）考虑公司的业务体量，针对厨房食品业务选取可比公司海天味业、恒顺醋业、道道全，针对饲料原料业务选取可比公司海大集团，四家公司 2025 年 Wind 一致预期均值为 28.75 倍。我们给予公司 2025 年盈利 50 倍 PE、较四家可比公司平均估值有一定溢价空间，原因主要系，1）与酱油、食醋等调味品行业相比，食用油的市场空间更广阔、且龙头的市占率更高。据欧睿数据，食用油、酱油 2022 年市场规模分别为 1164 亿元、969 亿元，对 应龙头金龙鱼、海天味业的市占率为 38.5%、 14.3%左右。食醋行业规模更小，2022 年约 160 亿元，其中恒顺醋业的市占率约 7%左右，与食用油相比、酱油食醋等调味品口味差异更大、故而竞争格局相对分散，金龙鱼则在中国食用油行业奠定了较强的竞争壁垒；2）道道全在食用油市场的市占率为 10%以下、远不及金龙鱼；3）与海大集团相比，公司在前端饲料原料生产 面具备相当优势，该业务对上游 大豆等原材料采购要求或更高。综上，我们给予公司 2025 年盈利 50 倍 PE，对应市值 2007 亿元、目标价 37.03 元，首次覆盖给予“增持”评级。
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金龙鱼-公司研究报告-粮油版图扩张盈利有望修复-241231（41页）.pdf
2017-2024H1公司饲料原料及油脂科技业务销量与均价
2017-2024H1公司厨房食品业务销量与均价
金龙鱼PB-Bands
金龙鱼PE-Bands
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