您的当前位置：首页 > 行业数据 > EXHIBIT 3： We revised up 2025E/2026E/2027E by 3%/10%/37%, and firstly introduced our 2028E China WFE forecast at $61bn

EXHIBIT 3： We revised up 2025E/2026E/2027E by 3%/10%/37%, and firstly introduced our 2028E China WFE forecast at $61bn

行业数据

下载图片

原图定位

同报告图片

/ 4

EXHIBIT 3： We revised up 2025E/2026E/2027E by 3%/10%/37%, and firstly introduced our 2028E China WFE forecast at $61bn_第1页

EXHIBIT 3： We revised up 2025E/2026E/2027E by 3%/10%/37%, and firstly introduced our 2028E China WFE forecast at $61bn_第2页

EXHIBIT 3： We revised up 2025E/2026E/2027E by 3%/10%/37%, and firstly introduced our 2028E China WFE forecast at $61bn_第3页

EXHIBIT 3： We revised up 2025E/2026E/2027E by 3%/10%/37%, and firstly introduced our 2028E China WFE forecast at $61bn_第4页

EXHIBIT 3： We revised up 2025E/2026E/2027E by 3%/10%/37%, and firstly introduced our 2028E China WFE forecast at $61bn_第5页

所属报告：

伯恩斯坦：中国半导体设备研究：当下即布局良机；晶圆厂设备需求井喷市场预期已然重置-260210（英文版）（20页）.pdf

打包全文图表

本报告来源于“慧博投研”，请勿外传！ Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D. +852 2123 2654 qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com domestic players, given their 2026 revenue has baked into 2025 new order guidance (mostly due to revenue recognition difference between domestic vendors vs. overseas vendors, where the former need almost 1 year from order to revenue while the latter just need 1~2 quarters as long as the equipment leave the shore), the visibility for domestic vendors are pretty high. We now model aggregated domestic vendors' revenue to grow 36%, reaching $15bn. All in all, we view China WFE market in 2026 willbe another growth year, mainly driven by the growth of domestic vendors. ·Early signals on 2027 is a lot more positive. We admit that we also have very limited visibility about how 2027 import will look like, but right now we are basically modeling flattish, given Tokyo Electron's mgmt alluded that China might be flat in the following several years. We certainly doubt how much visibility do they have, but right now it seems safe to just assume a flattish year, as many investors think China will buy as much as they can until they can't. On the flip side, domestic 2026 order guidance looks rather positive (see here) and may even accelerate, hence we now model 2027 domestic revenue YoY+27% to $19bn, but we don't rule out the possibility of further upwards revisions. Net net, we think 2027 China WFE could also be a growth year, also driven by domestic growth. We also model 2028 to be just a year of slightly growth. However, indeed we believe there could be upside to our projection given the aggresive capacity expansion plans. ·We mostly revise up our Advanced Logic & Memory projection based on our channel check. We think next two years there will be massive expansion in domestic Advanced Logic & Memory to meet the surging demand of local Al. For our view on domestic Advanced logic & Al, please see our report here. EXHIBIT 3: We revised up 2025E/2026E/2027E by 3%/10%/37%, and fisrtly introduced our 2028E China WFE

行业数据原图定位