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所属报告：
特朗普2.0关税政策：进展、前景及影响测算-250331（22页）.pdf
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《限制特朗普对伊朗动武法案》的国会投票中“背刺”特朗普的共和党议员不止来
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2026-07-10
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美国人希望府关注的问题与他们认为特朗普最关注的问题之间的差异对比
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2026-06-25
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特朗普2000亿美元MBS买令动住房长期款利率阶段性
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行业数据
2026-06-25
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2026特朗华期A股市场各行业表现
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行业数据
2026-06-12
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2017特朗华期A股市场各行业表现
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行业数据
2026-06-12
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特朗两次华中国均给予高规格待
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行业数据
2026-06-12
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2026年4月，相比去年同期对特朗各类策的反对比例上升
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行业数据
2026-06-12
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图：T3：特朗普担任美国总统对国际采购的预期影响程度
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行业数据
2026-04-08
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图：T4：企业对特朗普担任美国总统可能对其供应链影响的预期结果
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行业数据
2026-04-08
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美国历届总统支持率，特朗普表现较差
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行业数据
2026-03-16
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亨里奇基金报告 – 特朗普效应：美国和中国如何推动亚洲工厂的外国直接投资演变
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2026-03-03
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海宁基金会报告 - 特朗普效应：美国与中国如何推动工厂亚洲的外商直接投资演变
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2026-03-03
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海纳瑞基金会报告 - 特朗普效应：美国与中国如何驱动工厂亚洲的外国直接投资演变
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2026-03-03
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希宁基金会报告 - 特朗普效应：美国和中国如何推动工厂亚洲的外商直接投资演变
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2026-03-03
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欣瑞克基金会报告 - 特朗普效应：美国和中国如何推动亚洲制造业的FDI演变
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2026-03-03
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4 月后，关税政策波动性或将随着“长期关税”落地和贸易代表（USTR）的参与而逐步放缓。美国对等关税调查、对华关税调查即将完成，“长期关税”已经蓄势待发。上一阶段一直在参与推动研究和制定方案的美国贸易代表（USTR）或将更多地参与到美国关税政策决策过程中。而相比卢特尼克，现任贸易代表格里尔（Jamieson Greer）在2 月月末才被任命，且近期鲜少出现在公众面前。格里尔虽然同样在贸易问题上保持鹰派态度，但更注重关税政策的合法性，要求关税落地前必须经过正式法律流程和利益相关方反馈，按部就班地落地。这样的政策主张也符合“长期关税”对于合法性和可持续性的要求。因此，随着美国贸易政策由短期关税逐步切换至长期关税的政策逻辑，实际关税政策落地节奏可能放慢脚步。同时，由于长期关税的研究本身是基于《备忘录》展开的，因此后续《备忘录》对关税的预测性将有所提升。
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特朗普2.0关税政策：进展、前景及影响测算-250331（22页）.pdf
图9特朗普政策对美国经济增长及通胀影响预测汇总
图8波士顿联储测算各国进口对美国核心PCE直接或间接贡献比重（%）
图7截至3月25日，美国进口加权平均关税达8.4%
图6特朗普关税政策工具箱
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