occurs between 2045 and 2050, when production will reach over 170 Mtoe in 2050. At this stage, liquid synfuels dominate, accounting for almost 1o0 Mtoe, with smaller increases of the other contributions. This trajectory highlights the importance of ammonia and liquid synfuels not only for international trade but also for decarbonising global transport and industry, while gaseous synfuels the EU (left) compared to the global (right) market scenario. Particularly, the EU shows a rapid increase in number of plants, driven primarily by the FT-fuels, which will be the dominant technology in the future mix. At global level, the situation remains similar. The POTEnCIA CETO 2O25 Scenario results, are driven by explicit targets defined by EU policies (e.g., ReFuelEU Aviation, which mandates the uptake of Sustainable Aviation Fuels). These policy mandates create a strong, dedicated demand signal for synthetic fuels. · In the Global CET0 2°C scenario 2025 the projections are driven by a simpler, entirely global e gauae pue (ouans .) an uoqn gqo ajui e :omag iouoa economic development. This approach relies on broad market signals rather than specific regulatory obligations, leading to much lower penetration of these higher-cost, non- In addition to these estimates, other studies have provided modelling exercises on the possible evolution of RFNBO under scenarios towards 2O30 and beyond, such as the IEA “Net Zero by 2050" scenario (International Energy Agency (IEA), 2021), the study of Concawe in 2021 (Yugo et al., 2021) and in 2025 (Leavens et al., 2025; Ramasary, 2025) and the recent DG RTD report
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