高力国际：2025年美国商业地产展望报告：市场重构：不确定环境下的稳健路径（英文版）（36页）.pdf

1、Accelerating success.U.S.Research ReportThe 2026 CRE Reset:Stability Through UncertaintyCRE OUTLOOKU.S.Economy01A year ago,we projected that 2025 would“show continued economic resilience fueled by consumer spending and easing inflation,”while cautioning that“policy-driven headwinds,particularly thos

2、e related to immigration and tariffs,could drive up inflation and tighten labor market conditions in the following years.”Most economists believed at the time that the“soft landing”would carry into 2025 if inflation continued to ease,and that the Federal Reserve could begin gradually cutting rates.T

3、hat outlook began to shift as 2025 unfolded.Economic momentum slowed;real GDP growth declined from 2.8%in 2024 to roughly 2.1%,and real consumer spending flattened out.The labor market softened after April,when job growth stalled,unemployment rose to around 4.3%,and employment growth became increasi

4、ngly concentrated in the healthcare and public services sectors.Meanwhile,manufacturers cut jobs,and construction leveled off.Two policy changes defined the year.First,tariffs:the effective rate of 2%jumped to double digits.Moodys says that the increase could add about 1.3 percentage points to infla

5、tion and subtract about one percentage point from GDP once it is fully passed through.Second,immigration restrictions have made labor force expansion even more difficult.The number of foreign-born workers decreased by more than a percentage point,resulting in an estimated two million fewer workers t

6、han a year earlier.These factors raised costs,limited capacity,and lowered the“break-even”job growth rate to about 50,000 per month,meaning even modest hiring shortfalls now lead to higher unemployment.The Federal Reserve initiated a cautious easing cycle,reducing rates by 25 basis points in Septemb