中国石油集团：2060世界和中国能源展望报告（2025版）（英文版）（29页）.pdf

1、12ForewordCurrently,the factors influencing energy development are becoming increasingly complex.Technological innovation is driving a sustained global economic recovery,accelerating the growth ofglobal energy demand.The drivers of oil demand are undergoing fundamental shifts,natural gasdemand is ex

2、hibiting robust growth momentum,which demonstrates the remarkable resilience of fossilfuels.Although the overarching trend of clean and low-carbon energy transformation remains unchanged,major-power relations have shifted from cooperative competition to strategic rivalry.Energy hasevolved from a cor

3、nerstone of cooperation to a key arena for contestation,rising the priority ofensuring energy security and casting significant uncertainty over the outlook for energy transition.Considering this,the 2025 edition of the report has reconfigured three scenarios to bettercharacterize the impact of exter

4、nal factors on energy development.3ScenarioKey FeaturesChasm ScenarioThe widening divide in political and economic cooperation among major nations,coupled with thefragmentation of energy industry chains and supply chains,has heightened challenges to energy security.Chinas growing energy self-relianc

5、e leverages local resources to align energy security with the transition.BaselineScenarioGlobal geopolitical conflicts,technological rivalries and trade barriers have become the new normal,prompting nations to advance energy transitions while balancing security and transformation.China is accelerati

6、ng its economic and industrial transformation,advancing the establishment of a newenergy system,and progressing its energy transition in accordance with its established pace.Cooperation ScenarioGlobal consensus on tackling climate change has been restored,fostering an inclusive and open cooperativef