【中信期货】2026年中国货币政策展望：如何理解适度宽松-251217（23页）.pdf

1、重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。相关人员为客户。This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business.The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do n

2、ot constitute investment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures will not consider relevant personnel as customers due to their attention,receipt,or reading of this report.Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License 2012 No.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究中信期货国际化研究|CITIC Futures Internati

3、onal Research 2025-12-17 China Monetary Policy Outlook:Moderate Easing 2026 年年中国中国货币政策展望货币政策展望：如何理解如何理解适度宽松适度宽松 摘要摘要 Abstract In 2026,the PBoC may focus on structural monetary policy,while aggregate tools still need to be eased.The central bank has highlighted the need to“effectively implement an ap

4、propriately accommodative monetary policy”and to“maintain relatively accommodative financing conditions.”Weak financing demand,high real interest rates,and monetary-fiscal coordination require aggregate tools to play a role,and constraints from banks net interest margins and Fed policies may ease.We

5、 expect 1-2 interest rate cuts(10-20BP)and a reserve requirement ratio(RRR)cut of 25-50BP(the PBoCs resumption of government bond trading has reduced the probability and magnitude of an RRR cut).The PBoCs bond purchases may cap the upper limit of bond market interest rates,and the implementation of

6、aggregate tools is likely to drive the bond market higher.Risks:Policy exceeding expectations;Inflation overshooting;Tariff exceeding expectations.2026 年央行或主打结构性货币政策，总量型工具仍有宽松必要。央行强调“实施好适度宽松的货币政策”、“保持社会融资条件相对宽松”。融资需求弱、实际利率高及货币财政协同等需总量工具发力，且银行净息差、美联储政策等制约因素或缓解。预计降息 1-2 次（10-20BP），降准 25-50BP（央行重启国债买卖致