国际货币基金组织（IMF）：2050年亚洲人口与消费展望报告（英文版）（30页）.pdf

1、Demographics and Consumption in Asia Toward 2050 Sakai Ando,Kaitoh Hidano,and Jeongwon Son WP/25/247 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and d

2、o not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.2025 NOV*The author(s)would like to thank Andrea Pescatori,Natalija Novta,and all the participants in IMF seminars for useful comments.2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/247IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific D

3、epartment Demographics and Consumption in Asia Toward 2050 Prepared by Sakai Ando,Kaitoh Hidano,and Jeongwon Son*Authorized for distribution by Andrea Pescatori November 2025IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.

4、The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.ABSTRACT:What are the implications of demographics on total consumption and its sectoral composition in Asia toward 2050?Although the litera

5、ture has studied total consumption and individual consumption categories separately,the research that studies both is scarce.Using household consumption surveys from seven Asian economies and UN population projections,we find that(1)the compositional effects of demographics on total consumption can

6、be large when middle-aged population changes rapidly,(2)due to aging,some categories,including education and transport,may grow slower than others,like health,and(3)the implications are uncertain due to factors like economic growth,fertility,and migration.RECOMMENDED CITATION:Ando,Sakai,Hidano Kaito