荷宝（Robeco）：2026年投资展望报告：同步转变（英文版）（27页）.pdf

1、2026 INVESTMENT OUTLOOKThe synchronizedshiftMarketing materials for professional investors only,not for onward distribution.November 2025WHEN ECONOMIES PLAYA RARE HARMONYContents1.Introduction 32.Base case:The synchronized shift 63.Bear and bull case 144.Financial markets outlook 175.Summary 242026

2、INVESTMENT OUTLOOKThe synchronizedshiftThe 2026 Investment Outlook has been compiled by Peter van der Welle(Multi-Asset Strategist)and Colin Graham(Head of Multi-Asset Strategies).3Robeco|2026 Investment Outlook1.IntroductionGreat classical composers like Bach,Schubert,Mozart and Chopin all used a s

3、ingle,dramatic chord(several harmonious musical notes played together)in their most famous compositions to stir the attention of their listeners:the Neapolitan chord.A strikingly odd,seemingly off-key harmony,the Neapolitan chord signaled a pivotal moment in their compositions before returning to th

4、e home key.Likewise,in our base case,we expect the economic cycle to enjoy a Neapolitan moment in 2026.A rare,short-lived synchronized late-cycle upswing,driven by easing trade tensions,an uptick in the global manufacturing cycle and lagged effects of global central bank easing.4Robeco|2026 Investme

5、nt OutlookOur thesis of a synchronized shift has strong reminiscences with 2017 when the global economy,especially emerging markets,enjoyed a temporary upswing on the back of easy financial conditions,a depreciating dollar,stabilizing energy prices and a re-accelerating global economy with improving

6、 business and consumer confidence.Our metric shows that around 2017 more than 80%of G19 economies accelerated at an above 2%pace in terms of real GDP.Figure 1:Percentage of G19 countries growing above steady state(four-quarter percentage change in real GDP)Source:LSEG Datastream,Robeco,30 September