1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https:/ Equity Research Report 3Q25 beat on

2、export arbitrage;4Q likely dragged by sulfur costs 2026 phosphate chain supply/demand to tighten on booming energy storage;cost inflation could boost fertiliser exports We favour Chanhen(over XYF and Yuntianhua);its dividend yield offers valuation protection despite the recent rally Chanhen shows su

3、stained positive momentum.The shares of phosphate chemical companies have rallied over the past month,driven by a broad earnings beat in 3Q25,thanks to export arbitrage in phosphate fertilisers and positive market sentiment on iron phosphate demand.We fine-tune 2025-27e earnings and TPs for the thre

4、e companies we cover to reflect 3Q25 results.We believe the momentum of Chanhens(Buy)share price will continue,driven by:(1)its superior ability to pass through rising sulfur costs;(2)its expansion across rock and phosphate chemicals,offering clear growth visibility into 2026;and(3)a dividend yield

5、of 5%despite shares gaining 65%YTD(vs CSI300+19%).Chanhen is our preferred pick,given its high dividend yield and likely more resilient 4Q results supported by better product mix.We like Xinyangfeng(XYF,Buy)for its defensive valuation amid steady earnings growth.For Yuntianhua(Buy),after the recent

6、share price rally driven by the improved sentiment on iron phosphate,we expect the shares to consolidate before the next export season in 2Q26.We expect higher export volumes in 2026,which could provide earnings upside(investment thesis and valuation&risks on pages 4 and 2).Elevated sulfur prices ma