法巴BNP Paribas：美光科技（MU.US）-美股公司研究：HBM-规模制胜时代已至-251013（英文版）（29页）.pdf

1、 EQUITIES IT HARDWARE MICRONMICRON TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY OUTPERFORM FROMUNDERPERFORM PRICE*USD181.6 TARGET PRICE USD270(UPSIDE 49%)TARGET PRICE EPS 08/26e EPS 08/27e 170%83%77%HBM:Size Now Does Matter 13 OCTOBER 2025 Securities Research Report Production time:12:43*(London time)Research Analysts&Publ

2、ishing EntitiesResearch Analysts&Publishing Entities We are double-upgrading Micron from Underperform to Outperform and are raising our TP from$100 to$270.We now fully embrace high-bandwidth memory(HBM)as a sustainable,separate growth vector,and we believe we are in the early innings of a memory sup

3、ercycle.We expect Micron to at least maintain 20-25%share in HBM3E and HBM4,and our checks indicate DRAM and NAND pricing could inflect meaningfully higher.While MU has risen 115%YTD,we see 50%more upside.Whats Changed Since Our Thesis From A Year Ago?Our prior thesis was predicated on conventional

4、DRAM and NAND fundamentals moderating sooner and more substantially than what investors contemplated given prices peaked last year on a Y/Y basis,demand for conventional servers,PCs,and mobile devices would be seasonally weak in 1H:25,and xPU demand required only half of the planned wafer capacity i

5、nstallations of producers.There are four salient reasons we are compelled to change our view:1)the HBM TAM opportunity is at least 2x larger than we initially thought.We now expect the HBM TAM to reach$32B in 25,$47B in 26,and$86B by 27;2)Micron and Hynix will maintain an effective duopoly on HBM3E

6、longer than we previous thought.While we expect Samsung to pass qualification and start shipping HBM3E 12H to Nvidia in CQ1:26,we think Samsung has missed much of the insertion window for HBM3E at Nvidia;3)Micron has transitioned from a fast-follower to a leader in DRAM innovation,exemplified by its