汇丰HSBC：中国储能行业研究：新政策出台；行业发展提速-250922（英文版）（27页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https:/ We raise our 2026-27 global energy s

2、torage system(ESS)installation forecasts New policies in US and China are positive for ESS installation in the near term We prefer Eve Energy to Sungrow(both rated Buy)as we expect an imminent price hike for ESS batteries We raise our 2026/27 global energy storage system(ESS)installation forecasts f

3、rom 399/483GWh to 401/487GWh to reflect stronger-than-expected global ESS battery shipments in 1H25(up 109%y-o-y per PV Infolink),which we believe bodes well for ESS installation in 2H25-2026.New policies issued by NDRC on 12 September 2025 encourage power users to reduce their dependence on the gri

4、d for back-up power;this should also generate demand for ESS,in our view.In the US,while the One Big Beautiful Bill Act(OBBBA)set a ceiling to the ratio of China-made content in ESS projects for projects to be eligible for ITC,the projects started in 2025 are not subject to those restrictions.We hen

5、ce expect a rush of ESS project starts in the US in 2025.Maintain Buy ratings on both Eve Energy and Sungrow:Sungrow is the top 3 ESS integrator globally with a 16%market share in 2024,while Eve is the second-largest ESS battery supplier globally,also with a 16%market share in 2024(source:Wind).We p

6、refer Eve to Sungrow as we anticipate an imminent increase in ESS battery price driven by high capacity utilisation of key LIB makers,which should benefit Eve but is negative for Sungrow.Excluding Eves 31%stake in Smoore(6969 HK,HKD18.34,Not Rated),Eve is trading at attractive valuation of 17.1x 202