汇丰HSBC：优必选（9880.HK）-港股公司研究：从智能猫砂盆到人形机器人；稀缺的行业领军者-250915（英文版）（59页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ Scarci

2、ty:Chinas only listed humanoid robot maker,makes a wide range of other products,supplies to many auto OEMs Humanoid sales contribution to jump from 3%in 2024 to 48%in 2027e;we expect operating profit breakeven from 2028 Initiate at Hold with TP of HKD124(on 10 x 2027e PS)This initiation follows a se

3、ries of reports on humanoid robots since 2023.See p.13.Scarcity,clients,diversity:UBTech is Chinas largest humanoid robot maker with 2,790 patents.We see it has three advantages Scarcity:Chinas only listed humanoid robot maker.Clients:established comprehensive relationships with auto OEMs(Ex.6),the

4、downstream sector with the highest potential.Diversity:Other products(97%of FY24 sales)consumer(smart cat litter boxes etc.),education and logistic robots to generate cash flow before humanoid mass production(p.8-9).Closer to mass-production:UBTech launched its first humanoid robot “Walker”in 2018,a

5、head of competitors.We model its humanoid robot shipments at 750 units in 2025(500 industrial robots(Walker),50 service robots(Una)and 200 research robots(Tien Kung).We believe most Walker shipments are currently still for government clients.Shipments to auto OEMs will take longer.Our base-case 2024

6、-27e humanoid revenue is a 313%CAGR to RMB2.5bn(48%of FY27 sales)while our bull/bear case sees a 443%/162%CAGR to RMB5.6bn/632m(Ex.7).but we see client concentration risks:Miracle Automation,who holds 30%of equity in UBTechs subsidiary Wuxi Uqi(36%held by UBTech),was UBTechs largest customer in 2021