瑞士百达：2025年长期展望报告：股票、债券、货币与另类资产五年回报预测（英文版）（83页）.pdf

1、1 A global economy that will struggle to outrun debt and tariffs2 US assets are exceptional no more3 Stars align for income-generating assets4 The enduring appeal of private assets5 Equity investing in a“winner-takes-all”worldSecular Outlook2025AuthorsLUca PaoLiniChief StrategistarUn SaiSenior Multi

2、 Asset StrategistaLexia Jimenez Multi Asset StrategistShanieL ramJeeCo-Head Multi Asset LondonSabrina KhannicheSenior Economist1 Secular trendS 05 A global economy that will struggle to outrun debt and tariffs 20 uS assets are exceptional no more 33 Stars align for income-generating assets 43 The en

3、during appeal of private assets 51 Equity investing in a“winner-takes-all”world Five-year aSSet claSS return projectionS 62 A new diversified portfolio for a new age 64 Equities:the great convergence 67 Bonds:the bear market ends 70 Currencies:doubling down on the dollar 72 Alternatives:private asse

4、ts to outperform 77 AppendixThe world is splintering.In a reversal of the rules-based economic order that developed in the decades after the Berlin Wall came down,a new multi-polar global structure is falling into place.The irony is that this political fragmentation is leading to a convergence in bo

5、th macroeconomic trends and asset class returns at least for major developed markets.The exception and there is always an exception is the emerging world.Developing nations will prove a source of superior growth and higher returns.The Great Convergence is the third great post-Soviet eco-nomic and ge

6、opolitical era.The first was the Great Modera-tion,a time of macroeconomic stability that emerged from the end of the Cold War and the rise of China and the Internet.That was followed by the Age of Uncertainty,triggered by the global financial crisis and its aftershocks,the Covid-19 pan-demic and th