汇丰HSBC：全球奢侈品行业研究：曙光将至 行业增长有望改善-250901（英文版）（70页）.pdf

1、Disclosures&Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of September 2025Play video withErwan RambourgBy:Erwan Rambourg,Anne-Laure Bismuth and Akshay GuptaGlobal Luxury GoodsLet there be li

2、ght:Luxury brands couldsoon be in a better placeAfter four consecutive rough quarters,we see signs that growth is set to improve for the sector,especially in soft luxuryAlthough American consumers face short-term hurdles,Chinese consumers look set to become more engagedWe downgrade Herms to Hold fro

3、m Buy,but upgrade LVMH and Kering to Buy from Hold,the latter being non-consensusFuture ConsumerEquitiesGlobalThematic research 1 Future Consumer Equities September 2025 Let there be light After a rough patch,we believe its time to be a bit more positive on the Luxury sector as we expect H2 2025 sal

4、es to pick up slightly and 2026 to revert to decent,profitable growth.Although American consumers face short-term hurdles in Q4,we think Chinese consumers are bound to become more engaged,and both should contribute to better growth next year.We downgrade Herms to Hold from Buy and upgrade LVMH and K

5、ering to Buy from Hold,the latter being non-consensus.Some light at the end of the tunnel After four quarters of pain,partly macro driven(FX,recessionary fears,global tensions)but,bluntly,mostly self-inflicted,we see luxury starting to do better in H2 2025 before reverting to more decent growth in 2

6、026.Although we are not believers in a reversion to mean approach,we upgrade Kering and LVMH the worst performers in terms of growth recently to Buy from Hold and downgrade Herms to Hold from Buy.Overall,we believe the Chinese cluster should start to turn the corner in terms of luxury demand and alt