汇丰：中国快递行业研究：竞争格局趋缓 盈利修复在即-250813（20页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.13 August 2025 Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https:/ Equity Research Repor

2、t Policy tailwinds in more regions to drive further rerating Improving competition dynamics to strengthen profitability Upgrade Yunda and YTO to Buy from Hold;prefer STO(Buy)and Yunda given their better earnings resilience Sector rerating not yet completed.The A-share Express Delivery Index has rise

3、n 18%since July(vs CSI300:+4%),driven by Chinas anti-involution policy.While major delivery players forward PE have recovered by 27-59%since the July rally,we believe the profitability improvement across the industry has not been fully priced in considering YTOs 80%+PE improvement amid the express p

4、rice hikes in 4Q21.With Guangdong raising the delivery floor price by RMB0.4-0.5 to RMB1.4 per parcel from 5 August 2025(source:),we expect more regions to follow suit in 2H25.The policy tailwinds should support market price recovery,thus improving the competition dynamics and enhancing delivery pla

5、yers profitability and earnings visibility in 2026,in our view.We raise our TPs for franchised players as we lift estimates and roll forward our valuation base to 2026.History does not repeat itself,but it often rhymes.We compare the industrys latest price hike with the one in 4Q21-2022:1)Major play

6、ers higher ASP(+13-21%y-o-y)in 2022 was mainly driven by last-mile cost inflation for couriers.We expect ASP to stay largely flattish y-o-y in 2026,reflecting some recovery from the c4-8%ASP decline in 1H25 amid a higher mix of low-priced parcels with consumers being more price sensitive.2)We expect