【招银国际】1H25E profit comes as surprise with positive 2H25E outlook-250804（8页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 4 Aug 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Company Update Green Tea Group(6831 HK)Green Tea Group(6831 HK)-1H25E profit comes as surprise with positi

2、ve 2H25E outlook 1H25E profit comes as surprise with positive 2H25E outlook What is new?Green Tea released a positive profit alert and foresees its net profit to grow by 32%-36%YoY in 1H25E,better than expected.Management is now foreseeing the net profit to be around RMB 230mn-237mn in 1H25E,represe

3、nting 32%-36%YoY growth.Moreover,they are also expecting its adjusted net profit to be around RMB 247mn-254mn,implying 38%-42%YoY growth(after adjusting for listing fees of around RMB 15mn-20mn).The major drivers include:1)acceleration in sales growth(sales are likely to grow by 21%-25%YoY to RMB 2.

4、25bn-2.33bn in 1H25E),2)rapid store expansion(store count growth may be at about 25%,according CMBI estimates),and 3)improvement in store-level profitability as well as operational efficiency.Catalysts/Our view:1H25E was better-than-expected,meaningfully easing investors worries about SSSG turnaroun

5、d and potential margin dilution from the delivery business.1)1H25E results were certainly a beat.The announced 32%-36%net profit growth or 38%-42% profit growth in 1H25E are both much stronger than our 28%net profit growth forecast for FY25E.2)The SSSG was resilient and on track so fast,but it is ju

6、st inline with our estimates of 2%in FY25E.According to the management,the SSSG in 1H25E could be about LSD decline in 1H25E(made up of HSD drop in 1Q25E and MSD increase in 2Q25E).3)In our view,the beat in results was primarily driven by the margin expansion,as the NP margin may have improved to ab