1、Anthony HobleyAnthony HobleyChief Executive, Carbon Tracker InitiativeCarbon Tracker Initiative首席执行官July 17, 20172017年7月17日carbonbubbleA Changing Climate and the Financial Risk for Fossil Fuels气候变化与化石燃料的金融风险Who is Carbon Tracker? Carbon Tracker(碳追踪)是谁？2IdentityIdentity身份身份An independent non-profit f

2、inancial think tank funded by EU and US foundations.欧盟和美国的基金会出资成立运营的一个独立非营利性金融智库MissionMission使命使命Demonstrate the financial case for the transition of the fossil fuel sector in line with 2C.论证与2C目标相符的化石燃料行业转型的金融理据VisionVision愿景愿景To enable a 2C-aligned global energy system.促成建立符合 2C 目标的全球能源体系Sustaina

3、bility at the heart of challenges for 21st Century可持续性是21世纪面临的挑战的核心The environment is at the centre of our future and driving change: 环境是我们未来的重心，正在推动变革：Ambitious policy at internationalinternational (Paris Agreement) and nationalnational (“Ecological Civilization”) levels国际层面（巴黎协议）和国家层面（“生态文明建设”）的宏大

4、政策Rapid technologicaltechnological development快速的技术发展Financial markets waking up to the problem?金融市场开始意识到这个问题？3Private sector has central role私营部门发挥核心作用A green transition requires deployment of capital away from “brown” towards “green” sources of energy. 绿色转型要求把资本部署从“棕色”转向“绿色”来源的能源This requires unde

5、rstanding the opportunitiesopportunities on the green side and the risksrisks to the brown side. 这要求理解绿色侧的机会机会和棕色侧的风险风险41.Policy targets provide a framework for understanding the financial risks政策目标提供理解金融风险的框架Misalignment at the macro-level宏观层面错位6Company-level impact公司层面影响Our carbon supply cost curv

6、es follow economic logic of efficient capital allocation我们的碳供给成本曲线符合高效资本配置的经济学逻辑7Some companies better prepared than others有些公司准备比其他公司充分8Government plans indicate changes to fuel mix政府规划显示燃料结构的变化Environmental targets have local implications.环境目标具有本地影响Policy ambition can provide i