【中信期货】中国电价半年度展望-250716（12页）.pdf

1、重要提示：本报告非重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。相关人员为客户。This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business.The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do n

2、ot constitute investment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures will not consider relevant personnel as customers due to their attention,receipt,or reading of this report.Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License 2012 No.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究中信期货国际化研究|CITIC Futures Internati

3、onal Research 2022025 5-0 07 7-1616 China Electricity Price Mid-year Outlook 中国电价中国电价半年度半年度展望展望 摘要摘要 Abstract China electricity prices may fluctuate and slightly go upward in the second half.In spring(March-May),the temperature in most parts of China was close to or slightly higher than the same per

4、iod of previous years,and the industrial economy recovered slowly.As the contradiction between domestic fuel supply and demand surplus was hardly reversed in the second quarter,coal prices continued to decline,and with hydropower generation being restored,electricity prices maintained a downward tre

5、nd in the second quarter as a result.Looking ahead to the second half of the year,with the increase in peak electricity demand in summer,there is limited room for coal prices to fall,and electricity prices are expected to show a seasonal upward correction,but the upside potential remains limited.Key

6、 variables requiring close monitoring include high-temperature impacts and hydroelectric output performance.On the supply side,power generation construction has slowed down,while grid investment is accelerating.By April 2025,the nationwide cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by