【中信期货】中东冲突对欧线集运影响或有限-250714（9页）.pdf

1、重要提示：本报告非重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。相关人员为客户。This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business.The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do n

2、ot constitute investment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures will not consider relevant personnel as customers due to their attention,receipt,or reading of this report.Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License 2012 No.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究中信期货国际化研究|CITIC Futures Internati

3、onal Research 2025-07-14 Middle East Tension May Have Limited Impact on EU Route Shipping Rate 中东冲突对欧线集运影响或有限中东冲突对欧线集运影响或有限 摘要摘要 Abstract The conflict between Israel and Iran may continue for a relatively long time,but the benchmark assumption remains that the Strait of Hormuz maintains relatively n

4、ormal traffic.Freight rates on Middle East routes may remain high and strong,but its transmission effect may be limited.Freight rates on the U.S.routes have fallen rapidly,and as spot freight rates on the European routes have returned to the high level of the year,the EC futures strategy idea may re

5、main selling short at high levels in the future.In 2024,the volume related to the India/Pakistan/Middle East region totaled 30.723 million TEUs,with an annualized growth rate of 2.6%since 2019,accounting for 16.7%of the global traffic volume,and the volume in the Asia-India/Pakistan/Middle East regi

6、on accounted for 5.2%of the global total.Overall,the volume between Asia and the India/Pakistan/Middle East region and that from India/Pakistan/Middle East to North America and Central and South America have both also maintained rapid growth,while the volume from India/Pakistan/Middle East to Europe