【招银国际】Auto: 2Q25 earnings preview and 2H25 outlook-250711（6页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 11 Jul 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Sector Update Auto 2Q25 earnings preview and 2H25 outlook We project core earnings(excluding forex gains and

2、 government grants)of eight Chinese automakers to improve QoQ in 2Q25E,despite prolonged price wars.We raise FY25E earnings forecasts for Geely,Xpeng and Leapmotor,either due to upward revision of sales volume or operational efficiency.We revise down FY25E earnings estimates for Li Auto,NIO,BYD,Grea

3、t Wall Motor and GAC,largely due to sales volume forecast cuts.We expect Chinas sales volume growth industry-wide to slow down HoH in 2H25 amid high comparison base last year.2H25E industry sales forecast.We raise our forecast by 4%to 24.1mn units(+2.8%YoY)for Chinas passenger vehicle(PV)retail sale

4、s volume in 2025,given stronger-than-expected sales in 1H25(+7%YoY).Our new forecast implies flat sales volume in 2H25E vs.2H24,given the high YoY comparison base.We project PV wholesale volume to rise 8%YoY to 29.8mn units for 2025,as we also lift export forecast by 2%to 5.6mn units(+14%YoY).We rev

5、ise down our NEV retail sales volume forecast by 5%to 12.7mn units in 2025(+18%YoY,market share of 52.6%),given slower-than-expected market share increase in 1H25.We expect NEV wholesale volume to rise 23%YoY to 15.1mn units in 2025,as we lift NEV export by 71%to 2.1mn units given BYDs rapid growth

6、in NEV exports.Xpeng:2Q25E net loss to narrow by 17%QoQ.We expect Xpengs 2Q25E revenue to rise 129%YoY and 18%QoQ to RMB18.6bn,as its total sales volume surged 242%YoY to an all-time high of about 103,000 units in 2Q25.We project its vehicle average selling price(ASP)to rise 8%QoQ to about RMB165,00