【招银国际】2M25 NBS data shy of consensus, but expectation for stimulus policy on the rise-250318（5页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 18 Mar 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Sector Update Internet 2M25 NBS data shy of consensus,but expectation for stimulus policy on the rise Per NB

2、S,YoY growth of retail sales came in at 4.0%in 2M25,improving from 3.7%in Dec 2024.In our view,this was boosted by nationwide trade-in program,but shy of Wind consensus at 4.5%.Online physical goods GMV growth saw a further recovery MoM,with growth stood at 5.0%YoY in 2M25(2024:6.5%),which was impro

3、ved from 3.5%in 4Q24.Nationwide trade-in policy boosted sales GMV growth of key categories,while sustainability is the key to watch.There is increasing market expectation for further stimulus policy,and the next round of valuation rerating may hinge on the recovery of consumption sentiment.We mainta

4、in our BUY rating on Alibaba,Pinduoduo and JD.com(JD).2M25 NBS consumption data shy of consensus,while demonstrated sequential recovery trend.YoY growth of retail sales came in at 4.0%in 2M25,per NBS,although shy of Wind consensus at 4.5%,the number demonstrated a sequential improvement from 3.7%YoY

5、 in Dec 2024.In our view,this was driven by the expansion of categories covered in the trade-in program.Offline activities also demonstrated a sequential improvement trend,evidenced by the 4.3%YoY growth in catering services GMV in 2M25(Dec 2024:2.7%),which in our view could be partly attributable t

6、o the CNY holiday season.Online physical goods GMV growth saw a further recovery MoM.Per NBS,YoY growth in online retail sales GMV of physical goods demonstrated a MoM improvement in 2M25 compared to Dec 2024 and 4Q24,coming in at 5.0%in 2M25(Dec 2024:3.8%;4Q24:3.5%).By type of consumption,online re