【招银国际】Exports slowdown may prompt policy easing-250310（8页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 10 Mar 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Exports slowdown may prompt policy easing Chinas exports in 2M25 came

2、 in notably below market expectation,as exports moderated across major trading partners.Export of electronic products remained robust while other consumer goods including bags,clothes,furniture and motor vehicles as well as intermediate products including plastic,steel and aluminum dipped.Imports dr

3、opped markedly dragged by energy related commodities including coal,crude oil and natural gas and iron&copper-related raw materials.The slowdown of broad-based export in 2M25 was beyond the mere payback effect from front-loading to the US,as it may be due to the spill-out effect of Trumps tariff pol

4、icy to international trade.Rising export pressure could weigh on Chinas growth,potentially leading to an earlier round of policy easing from late 2Q25.Looking forward,we expect Chinas export growth to decelerate from 5.9%in 2024 to 3.3%in 2025 while import growth may mildly rise from 1.1%to 2.2%.We

5、expect the USD/RMB rate to reach 7.4 at end-2025 from 7.35 at end-2024.Exports moderated notably across major trading partners.Exports dropped to 2.3%(all on a YoY basis unless specified)in 2M25 after rising 10.7%in Dec,notably below market expectation of 5.1%.Not only the exports to the US have mod

6、erated markedly from 15.6%in Dec to 2.3%in 2M25,the exports to other major trading partners including ASEAN and the EU also slowed down from 18.9%and 8.8%to 5.7%and 0.6%,indicating that this is beyond the mere payback of the front-loading effect at the end of 2024.Exports to Latin America and Africa