【招银国际】Jan 2025 NEV sales to fall MoM despite solid Dec leading indicators-250107（4页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 7 Jan 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Sector Update Auto Jan 2025 NEV sales to fall MoM despite solid Dec leading indicators We summarize the Dec 2

2、024 leading indicators as below,including the number of leads,customer flows and new orders generated,for Tesla,NIO,Li Auto,Xpeng,BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores(15-18 stores for each brand)in 15 cities in China.The following data reflect same-store metrics,a

3、nd the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures,as most players are still expanding their sales network.The solid trend of leading indicators extended into Dec 2024,as we had expected,given the pre-buying effect before the Chinese governments trade-in subsidy expiration.We expec

4、t NEV retail sales volume to fall 30-40%MoM in Jan 2025,despite some local governments extended subsidy policies and rising incentives from some NEV makers.Number of leads:Tesla and BYD led the MoM increase.Total per-store number of leads for the six brands remained flat MoM in Dec 2024(Figure 1).Th

5、e number fell 14%MoM for Xpeng due to a high comparison base in Nov amid the launch of the P7+,which was offset by the increases for Tesla(+6%)and BYD(+4%)thanks to higher incentives.Number of leads for NIO,Li Auto and GAC Aion remained largely stable MoM(-2%2%)in Dec.The conversion ratio from leads

6、 to store visits improved by 0.5ppts MoM in Dec for both Tesla and Xpeng while it fell 0.7ppts MoM for Li Auto(Figure 2).Li Auto has had the lowest conversion ratio among all the six brands since Sep 2024.Customer flow:Tesla and BYD remained resilient.The trend of customer flow per store was largely