国际劳工组织（ILO）：2025世界就业与社会展望报告（5月版）（英文版）（18页）.pdf

1、 World Economic and Social Outlook:May 2025 Update 1 World Employment and Social Outlook:May 2025 Update The economic and labour market outlook for 2025 is increasingly fragile,with global GDP growth recently revised down to 2.8 per cent from 3.2 per cent due to persistent geopolitical tensions,rece

2、nt trade disruptions,and heightened uncertainty.Slower economic growth is expected to reduce global employment growth from 1.7 to 1.5 per cent in 2025,corresponding to an increase in employment of 53 million,down from the previous forecast of 60 million.Across 71 countries with data,around 84 millio

3、n workers whose employment is linked to consumer demand in the United States face elevated risks of disruption due to higher tariffs and trade uncertainty.Labour markets remain resilient but show signs that labour demand is weakening:in countries with available high-frequency data(mostly high-income

4、),low unemployment coexists with job vacancies below their long-term trend and declining business and consumer confidence in the first quarter of 2025.Over the past decade,global economic growth has been moderately employment-intensive,with productivity growth outpacing employment growth,but the per

5、sistence,and in some cases expansion,of informal employment remains a critical concern in developing countries.The labour income share fell from 53.0 per cent in 2014 to 52.4 per cent in 2024,reinforcing upward pressure on inequality.Had the labour income share remained at its 2014 level,global labo

6、ur income would have been$1 trillion(in constant PPP)higher in 2024,and each worker would have earned an additional$290(in constant PPP)on average that year.Over the past decade,shifts in the occupational structure of employment were substantial.Employment is shifting toward high-skill occupations,p