汇丰：百威亚太（1876.HK）-港股公司研究：2Q25超预期但短期挑战仍存 维持持有-250731（英文版）(11页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https:/ Equity Research Report A better-than

2、-expected 2Q25 with organic normalised EBITDA down 4.5%,but we think near-term challenges remain Lower 2025-27e earnings estimates by 2-3%to factor in lower other operating income and a higher tax rate Maintain Hold with an unchanged target price of HKD8.50 Near-term challenges remain,despite a bett

3、er-than-expected 2Q25,with organic normalised EBITDA down 4.5%y-o-y in 2Q(down 8.0%in 1H25 versus down 11.1%for consensus),mainly because:(1)a better ASP recovery in China off a low base(down 5.4%in 2Q24),and(2)better-than-expected cost control.Despite these positive results,we think challenges rema

4、in for Bud APAC,given its over-indexed sales exposure to on-trade channels in China as Chinas beer production volume moderated to down 0.2%in June from 1.3%in May,according to the NBS,as a result of the slowdown in Chinas catering revenue(see Exhibit 2).Meanwhile,Bud APAC is proactively taking steps

5、 to manage its inventory level in 1H25 and will continue to manage inventory in 3Q25e,according to Bud APACs analyst briefing.Lower 2025-27e earnings estimates by 2-3%.During the analyst briefing,management discussed witnessing the 2Q volume slowdown in the restaurant channel continuing into the sta

6、rt of 3Q in China,given Chinas anti-extravagance campaign.Given the slowdown in the restaurant channel,Bud APAC will likely continue to:(1)invest in its mega brands(Budweiser and Harbin),(2)expand the off-trade channel(slightly higher than 50%for Bud APAC versus the 60%for the industrys average),and