汇丰：全球奢侈品行业：最坏时期是否已过？爱马仕、巴宝莉Q2环比改善-250702（英文版）（30页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Research at:https:/ Listen to our insightsFind out moreHSBCGlobal InvestmentR

2、esearchPodcasts H1 results will likely show high dispersion between companies,but overall a slowdown of luxury growth Bears will point to no sales rebound before Q2 2026;bulls will point to sales growth having troughed now(famous last words)Adjust TPs across our coverage on new COE assumptions;Buy-r

3、ated Herms and Burberry to stand out with Q2 top-line sequential improvement;Buy Richemont and Prada also Why its a sobering time for luxury sales:Q1 started strong and ended poorly.We think Q2 will have been the reverse.The shock of“liberation day”meant confidence,markets and the USD all went south

4、 pretty quickly in April and affected luxury demand,before likely a better performance in May and June.From a regional perspective,there are two very clear cut changes relative to Q1.First,Japan growth,which had been artificially boosted a year ago by the weak JPY and associated daigou,will have lik

5、ely reversed visibly for most groups.Second,comments on the American cluster rolling over,mostly the aspirational consumer and mostly abroad rather than at home(meaning in Europe)are commonplace.The USD weakness is an issue for margins in the sector,but also obviously for tourism flows as non-Europe

6、ans might find the old continent a bit pricier than they had been accustomed to.So,whats the bear and bull case from here?The bear case remains that apart from macro issues weighing,the luxury sector(mostly handbags and accessories)is suffering from an overhang of a lack of creativity combined with