景顺投资（Invesco）：2025年年中投资展望报告：全球格局重塑（英文版）（18页）.PDF

1、20 2 5 M I DY E A R I N V E ST M E N T O U T LO O KThe global resetFor public use in US and Canada|For US audiences:Not a Deposit;Not FDIC Insured;Not Guaranteed by the Bank;May Lose Value;Not Insured by any Federal Government Agency 2Executive summaryInvesco Global Market Strategy OfficeWe view thi

2、s as an opportunity for investors to diversify their portfolios across regions and asset classes,as well as to reduce concentrations.This may help in weathering volatility while also allowing investors to benefit from potential upside surprises.The global economic and political landscape is shifting

3、 rapidly,marked by a broad reordering of trade relations and political alliances around the globe.In response,uncertainty measures across global markets soared in the first half of 2025.We make no apologies for acknowledging that there are plenty of things we do not know today.We remain wary about p

4、recise estimates of where tariff rates will settle,the exact timing of interest rate changes and detailed inflation and growth forecasts.These estimates,among others,are heavily dependent on a more consistent sense of US policy direction.That said,we have greater confidence in the direction of trave

5、l for some key trends,macro factors,and,ultimately,markets.We expect tariffs to be higher than in previous decades and US immigration to be lower.The result is likely to be slower growth and higher inflation in the US in 2025 than was expected at the start of the year,although better-than-expected r

6、esolution of tariff disputes and the positive impact of anticipated deregulation may continue to allow US markets to rally.While US politics dominated the news flow in the first half of 2025,it is important to note that there have been developments elsewhere in the world that would have been the“sto