【公司研究】神州信息-银行创新加速核心业务有望加速替代-20200609[34页].pdf

1、 / 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 9,077 10,146 11,757 13,915 16,693 (+/-)% 11% 12% 16% 18% 20% 42 376 458 566 696 (+/-)% -86% 803% 22% 24% 23% 0.04 0.39 0.47 0.58 0.72 342 38 31 25 20 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 (%) 0.8% 7.4% 8.4% 9.6% 10.7% (%) 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% () 970 970 970 970 970 2020/6/9 6 17.6

2、2-18.76 14.37 12 9.4519.99 14,235 970 A 970 B/H 0/0 18 -18% -1% 16% 33% 50% 2019/62019/92019/122020/3 % 1M 3M 12M -5% -18% 36% -7% -15% 24% + -20200508 -20200316 S0550519100001 13810884820 S0550119110002 15652991086 S0550119110012 18811346899 S0550119120003 18688975825 000555 2020-06-09 2 / 34 1. .

3、4 2. IT201950% . 5 3. IT . 11 3.1. IT. 11 3.2. IT . 13 3.2.1. ITIOE . 13 3.2.2. ITIOE . 14 3.3. 2016. 15 3.4. . 16 3.4.1. Gauss DBAIARMX86 . 18 3.4.2. OceanBaseOracle . 19 3.4.3. PingCAP TiDB . 20 3.5. IT. 21 3.6. . 22 4. . 23 4.1. 2012. 23 4.2. . 25 4.3. . 27 5. . 28 5.1. 2020-2022117.57/139.15/166

4、.93 . 28 5.2. 2020-20224.58/5.66/6.96 . 30 5.3. 2020171-18217.62-18.76 . 31 6. . 31 1 . 5 2 . 6 32019 . 6 42019 . 6 5 . 7 6 . 7 7 . 7 8 . 7 9 . 7 3 / 34 10 . 8 11 . 8 12 . 9 13IT . 9 14IT . 10 15IT . 10 16IT .11 172018IT . 12 182017IT . 12 192018 . 12 202018 . 12 212015 . 14 22 . 15 23SmrtEnsemble .

5、 16 24 . 17 25 . 17 26 . 18 27OLTPOLAP . 19 28OceanBase . 20 29 . 20 30 . 21 312020-2023 . 22 32. 22 33. 23 34 . 24 35 “”. 24 36. 25 37 . 25 38 . 26 39 . 27 40 . 28 41 . 29 42. 29 43 . 30 44 . 30 45. 31 46. 31 4 / 34 1. IT 2013 1998 2013-2019 IDC7 2020-2023ITITIDC 2018IT1116.8+10.1%419.9 +23.6%IT IT

6、 IOE 2020-2023160 4420142015 15 201975 IBM20192019 1246072020-2023 16044 2012 2016 2019 2020-20224.58/5.66/6.96 202045-50 xP/E100-111 202030 x P/E71171-18217.62-18.76 5 / 34 2. IT201950% IT 1984 111985 1994 1997 IT20009 2001 00861.HK2000 1 Wind 3 2013*STA IT2015 IT 6 / 34 2 Wind 2019 54.0829.4%50%20