为什么传导机制如此重要？菲律宾的通胀预期.pdf

1、Classification:GENERALBANGKO SENTRAL NG PILIPINASWhy is the pass-through so important?Inflation expectations in the PhilippinesELI M.REMOLONA,JR.Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas2025 Bank of Korea ConferenceFuture of Monetary Policy under Structural Shifts2-3 June 2025Classification:GENERALWhat makes the

2、exchange rate so important in inflation dynamics?For emerging markets,the exchange-rate pass-through is the main inflation risk factor(Banerjee et al 2024)When the market macrostructure is dominated by the foreign exchange marketWhen foreign remittances are important for householdsHow exchange rates

3、 shape inflation expectationsRole of foreign exchange interventionClassification:GENERALSo,Governor,will the peso turn senior?The FX market drives the narrativeClassification:GENERAL4Household inflation expectations and dollar-peso exchange ratePeso depreciation shapes inflation expectationsSources

4、Bloomberg,BSPs Consumer Expectations Survey46485052545658601234567Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q42018201920202021202220232024In Php/US$In PercentOne-year ahead inflation expectations(LHS)Exchange Rate(RHS)Classification:GENERALThe pass-through kicks in beyond a threshold5Sou

5、rce:BSP staff estimates using the methodology of Banerjee,et al(2024)Note:FX refers to the USD/PHP nominal exchange rateEffect of exchange rate on inflationClassification:GENERALThere is a role for exchange rate intervention To counter false narratives To prevent a de-anchoring of inflation expectat

6、ions due to swings in the exchange rateClassification:GENERALBANGKO SENTRAL NG PILIPINASELI M.REMOLONA,JR.Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas2025 Bank of Korea Conference“Future of Monetary Policy under Structural Shifts”2-3 June 2025Why is the pas