【公司研究】长城汽车-深度报告系列之（一）：乘用车篇无惧低谷苦修内功自主龙头强者恒强-20200714[36页].pdf

1、 / 20112014 SUVH6 SUV 2015 20162017 SUV 2018 2018H22019H1 SUV i-pilot ASP 2020-202244.77 55.3667.90EPS0.490.600.74 19.9816.1613.18“” 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 99,230 96,211 95,642 108,634 119,668 (+/-)% -1.92% -3.04% -0.59% 13.58% 10.16% 5,207 4,497 4,477 5,536 6,790 (+/-)% 3.58% -13.64% -0.44%

2、23.65% 22.64% 0.57 0.49 0.49 0.60 0.74 9.87 18.06 19.98 16.16 13.18 0.98 1.49 1.52 1.39 1.26 (%) 9.91% 8.27% 7.60% 8.59% 9.53% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 9,127 9,127 9,177 9,177 9,177 2020/7/10 6 12.50 9.75 12 7.4010.08 89,472 9,177 A 6,077 B/H 0/3,100 37 -14% -6% 2% 10% 18% 26% 2019/72019

3、/102020/12020/4 % 1M 3M 12M 19% 25% 10% 1% -2% -16% 601633.SH6 -20200709 601633.SH5 -20200610 601633.SH -20200429 601633.SH3 -20200413 S0550518060001 021-20363210 S0550119070003 021-20363250 601633 2020-07-14 2 / 36 1. SUV . 5 1.1. . 5 1.2. SUV . 6 1.3. . 7 1.4. . 8 1.5. . 9 2. . 10 2.1. 2011-2014SU

4、V . 10 2.1.1. SUV . 10 2.1.2. . 11 2.2. 2015 . 13 2.2.1. . 13 2.2.2. 2015. 15 2.3. 2016-2017. 16 2.3.1. 2017 . 16 2.3.2. SUV. 17 2.3.3. 20162017. 19 2.4. 2018 . 20 2.4.1. . 20 2.4.2. . 21 2.4.3. 2018H2-2019H1. 22 3. . 22 3.1. . 22 3.2. . 23 3.2.1. . 23 3.2.2. . 25 3.3. +9DCT . 26 3.3.1. . 27 3.3.2.

5、7DCT9DCT . 28 3.4. . 29 3.4.1. . 29 3.4.2. . 31 4. . 33 5. . 33 3 / 36 1 . 5 2 . 6 3 . 7 4 . 8 5 . 8 6 . 8 72019 . 8 8 . 9 9 . 9 10. 9 11 . 9 12 . 10 13 . 10 14 . 10 1520112014 .11 1620112014SUV .11 1720112014SUV .11 1820112014ASUV .11 192011-2014 . 12 202011-2014 . 12 212011-2014 . 12 222011-2014 .

6、 12 2320112015GDP% . 13 242015H16-8 . 14 252010-2015. 14 262015 . 14 272015H2 . 16 282015H2 . 16 2920162017 . 17 30SUV . 18 31SUV. 18 32SUV . 18 332015SUV . 18 34SUV . 19 35SUV . 19 362016-2017 . 20 372016-2017. 20 38GDP% . 20 39. 20 402018H2-2019H1 . 22 412018H2-2019H1. 22 42 . 23 43 . 24 4 / 36 44