奥纬咨询：2025全球贸易紧张与油气市场挑战下国家石油公司的应对策略报告（英文版）（16页）.pdf

1、STRATEGIES FOR TURBULENT TIMESHow national oil companies can navigate growing trade tensions and challenging oil and gas marketsNadim HaddadPedro AlcalaSandro MelisJad MoussalliLarissa De Lima Oliver Wyman2Strategies For Turbulent TimesINTRODUCTIONThe global oil and gas industry is currently navigat

2、ing a turbulent landscape,significantly impacted by new tariffs and the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China.This geopolitical uncertainty is contributing to falling oil prices,which are hovering around$60 per barrel.While tariffs have acted as a key catalyst for this declin

3、e,the situation is further amplified by a combination of demand-side and supply-side pressures.On the supply side,OPEC+countries have accelerated plans to roll back output cuts,increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May.Non-OPEC+supply has also been growing,adding to global sup

4、ply concerns.While the oil and gas commodity market has reacted to this short-term instability,these developments also carry potential long-term consequences.Local crude inventories are rising,particularly in the U.S,reaching peak levels not seen since mid-2023.Major analysts have revised their outl

5、ook,downgrading crude projections to$60-$62 per barrel.These and other indicators suggest uncertainty will continue.What scenarios are emerging concurrent to tariff developments?What impact might these scenarios have on the outlook for the oil and gas market?What strategic shifts should national oil

6、 companies(NOCs)adopt to mitigate risks and adapt to a changing environment?Oliver Wyman3Strategies For Turbulent TimesIn an era of geopolitical uncertainty,national oil companies must adopt adaptable strategies to navigate the complexities of fluctuating tariffs and volatile markets Oliver Wyman4St