KKR：2025年全球宏观趋势展望报告：杯子依旧半满（英文版）（87页）.pdf

1、Global Macro Trends December 202414.6InsightsGlass Still Half FullOutlook for 2025 Contents 3 Introduction 5 Most Important Things to Know 18 Key Market Calls 19 Key Themes and Asset Allocation 19 Improved Capital Efficiency 20 Private Sector Market Share Gainers 20 Worker Retraining/Productivity 21

2、 Security of Everything 22 Intra-Asia 23 Demographic Challenges to Retirement Security 24 AI/Energy Infrastructure 26 Picks And Pans 32 Global/Regional Economic Forecasts 33 U.S.43 Euro Area 47 China 53 Japan 58 Capital Markets 58 S&P 500 64 U.S.Interest Rates 68 Euro Area Interest Rates 68 Japa

3、n Interest Rates 69 Oil 73 Frequently Asked Questions 73 Why is KKR still bullish on its Regime Change thesis?76 How is the U.S.consumer doing?80 What are KKRs latest thoughts on expected returns this cycle?82 Where does KKR see relative value in Liquid Credit?85 Key ConclusionsHenry H.McVeyHead of

4、Global Macro&Asset Allocation,CIO of KKR Balance S David McNellis Aidan Corcoran Frances Lim Changchun Hua Kristopher Novell Paula Campbell Roberts Brian Leung Rebecca Ramsey Tony Buckley Bola Okunade Rachel Li Thibaud Monmirel Yifan Zhao Ezra Max Miguel Montoya Asim Ali Patrick Holt Patrycja Ko

5、szykowska Coco Qu Koontze Jang Allen Liu Alexandre Caduc Insights|Volume 14.6 3Glass Still Half FullOutlook for 2025Without question,we are living in extraordinary times,where perspectives on the world vary dramatically.On the one hand,rising GDP-per-capita in many countries,significant advancements

6、 in healthcare,and incredible technological discoveries all represent meaningful positive momentum.In addition,soaring asset prices have materially boosted net worth,especially for those heavily invested in the S&P 500 and housing.At the same time,however,a contrasting narrative emerges for many