美世咨询（Mercer）：2025年经济与市场展望报告：利率登高必回落（英文版）（15页）.pdf

1、After the climb comes the descent Economic and Market Outlook 2025After the climb comes the descent2After the climb comes the descent Executive summary By Rupert Watson,Global Head of Economics and Dynamic Asset Allocation,MercerFrances Alpe dHuez is renowned as one of the most challenging climbs in

2、 cycling.But reaching the peak is only half the battle as the descent awaiting cyclists presents a winding and technically challenging route down the mountain.Similarly,after a period of aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023,central banks face a difficult challenge in the descent from peak

3、 rates.With the risks between growth and inflation now more delicately balanced,the Federal Reserve(the Fed)and other central banks are cutting interest rates to loosen monetary policy from current restrictive levels back to more neutral ground.Central banks are likely to keep cutting interest rates

4、 at various intervals until the road looks a lot smoother hoping the economy doesnt get a flat tire on the way.Despite the rate cuts,we expect growth in the developed world to soften in the near term due to the lagged impact of restrictive monetary policy.However,recession risks are low thanks to th

5、e strength of corporate and household sector balance sheets.Japan should grow at a decent pace,driven by domestic demand and higher income growth.Meanwhile,the eurozone faces limited near-term growth catalysts.Looking further out into 2025,we expect the loosening of monetary policy to boost growth.T

6、here are now,however,risks to this base case to both the upside and downside in the US following the election of President-elect Trump.Chinas growth outlook is uncertain,although the recent stimulus announcements from the Peoples Bank of China and financial regulators highlight their intent to put a