先锋集团：2025年全球经济和市场展望报告：着陆之后（英文版）（26页）.pdf

1、Vanguard research December 2024Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2025:Beyond the landingThe global monetary easing cycle will be in full swing in 2025,with inflation in most developed economies now within touching distance of central banks targets.The good fortune of high productivity growth

2、and a surge in available labor has propelled the U.S.economy,while other economies have been less lucky.The potential for these positive supply-side factors to wane is a key risk to our U.S.outlook,though expansionary fiscal policy may cushion any negative impact on growth.We reemphasize the view we

3、 put forth a year ago,that an era of sound moneywith interest rates above the rate of inflationlives on.That said,markets face a growing point of tension:Assets with the strongest fundamentals have the most stretched valuations,and vice versa.Short-term economic and policy risks will help determine

4、whether momentum or valuations dominate investment returns in 2025.Still-sound moneyAs interest rates return toward neutral,we expect them to settle at higher levels than in the 2010s.This environment sets the foundation for solid cash and fixed income returns over the next decade.Page 6.U.S.economi

5、c resiliencePositive labor supply and productivity developments drove U.S.growth in 2024.Whether these drivers wane or accelerate,coupled with demand factors such as fiscal stimulus,holds the key in 2025.Page 7.Growing market tensionThe possibility that we are experiencing a valuation-supporting pro

6、ductivity boom must be balanced by the risk that economic developments could expose the vulnerability of stretched equity valuations.Page 17.Contents3 Global outlook summary6 Our economic outlook 16 Our market outlookVanguards 2025 economic forecastsGDP growthUnemployment rateCore inflationMonetary